A group, The Tinubu Stakeholders Forum (TSF) has described Nigeria’s victory in the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) arbitration over the Mambilla Hydropower Project as a significant development for the country’s finances, power sector and broader economic prospects.
TSF said the ruling, which rejected claims brought by Sunrise Power against Nigeria, would shield the country from a potential financial liability running into billions of dollars.
The forum made its position known in a statement jointly signed by its Chairman, Ahmad Sajoh, and Secretary, Danjuma Sada.
The ICC tribunal rejected Sunrise Power’s $2.35 billion claim arising from the long-running dispute over the Mambilla project.
It also rejected a separate $400 million claim linked to a proposed settlement, with TSF putting the total potential exposure addressed in the related proceedings at more than $3.38 billion.
According to the forum, the significance of the ruling goes beyond the courtroom, as it could provide Nigeria with greater fiscal space while removing a longstanding legal obstacle to the development of the Mambilla project.
“For Nigeria’s economy, the decision represents the avoidance of a potentially substantial financial liability, the recovery of legal costs and, potentially, the removal of a long-standing legal obstacle to one of the country’s most ambitious power projects,” TSF said.
The forum described Mambilla as one of Nigeria’s major untapped infrastructure and energy opportunities, noting that the prolonged legal dispute had remained an additional obstacle to a project capable of significantly increasing the country’s electricity generation capacity.
TSF said the arbitration victory came at a critical period in the Tinubu administration’s efforts to address structural and financial challenges in the electricity sector.
It noted that the Federal Government was currently implementing a structured plan to settle ₦3.3 trillion in verified legacy power-sector obligations.
The forum further argued that the scale of the arbitration victory was significant, saying the $3.38 billion Sunrise claims exceeded the $2.3 billion legacy power-sector settlement programme.
“Eliminating this major liability prevents a massive financial drain, giving the government the necessary fiscal headroom to address inherited obligations and focus on sustainable power sector reforms,” it said.
TSF said successful implementation of the Mambilla project could have wider economic implications beyond increased electricity generation.
According to the forum, improved grid power supply would support manufacturing, mining, agriculture, technology and other productive sectors, while creating opportunities for businesses, employment and investment.
It also said the successful resolution of the arbitration sent a signal to international investors about Nigeria’s willingness and capacity to defend its economic interests through established international dispute-resolution mechanisms while maintaining contractual and legal discipline.
The forum urged the Federal Government to build on the arbitration victory by accelerating the next phase of work on the Mambilla project.
It, however, called for transparency, commercial discipline and strong contractual safeguards in the implementation of the project.
