A group, The Tinubu Stakeholders Forum (TSF) has described Nigeria’s victory in the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) arbitration over the Mambilla Hydropower Project as a major boost to the country’s finances, power sector and broader economic prospects.
The ICC tribunal rejected claims brought by Sunrise Power against Nigeria, including a $2.35bn claim arising from the long-running dispute over the project.
It also dismissed a separate $400m claim linked to a proposed settlement, bringing the total potential exposure addressed in the related proceedings to more than $3.38bn.
In a statement by its Chairman, Ahmad Sajoh, and Secretary, Danjuma Sada, the TSF said the ruling went beyond the courtroom, describing it as an opportunity for the Federal Government to strengthen its fiscal position and advance the Mambilla project.
“For Nigeria’s economy, the decision represents the avoidance of a potentially substantial financial liability, the recovery of legal costs and, potentially, the removal of a long-standing legal obstacle to one of the country’s most ambitious power projects,” the forum said.
The group noted that the Mambilla project had remained one of Nigeria’s major untapped infrastructure and energy opportunities, adding that the prolonged legal dispute had constituted an additional obstacle to its development.
TSF said the arbitration victory came at a critical period as the administration of President Bola Tinubu works to address structural and financial challenges in the electricity sector.
“The timing is particularly strategic as the Federal Government is currently implementing a structured plan to settle ₦3.3tn in verified legacy power-sector obligations,” it said.
The forum further noted that the $3.38bn claim rejected by the tribunal was larger than the government’s reported legacy power-sector settlement programme.
It said the removal of the potential liability would provide the government with greater fiscal space to address inherited obligations and pursue reforms in the power sector.
According to TSF, successful implementation of the Mambilla project would have implications beyond electricity generation, as increased power supply could support manufacturing, mining, agriculture, technology and other productive sectors.
It added that the project could also create opportunities for businesses, employment and investment across the country.
The forum said the arbitration outcome also sent a signal to international investors that Nigeria was prepared to defend its economic interests through established international dispute-resolution mechanisms while maintaining contractual and legal discipline.
TSF urged the Federal Government to build on the arbitration victory by accelerating the next phase of the Mambilla project, while ensuring transparency, commercial discipline and strong contractual safeguards.
